Modi Economic Policy, A case of Charismatic Chaos. How much Halo, How much substance???

Added on 06th November 2018

In view of incoming elections, the Modi government wants to announce populistic schemes to win votes in the 2019 general elections. The lack of fiscal and financial discipline, and add to this the financially detrimental  policies like Demonetisation and faulty structure and implementation of GST  have badly hit the economy, GDP, and government revenue badly. A bad economy has gone to worse condition.

The public sector banks are in no position to fund the popular election policy of Modi government of 59 minute loan approval to SME sector. The  government now wants to steal money from the RBI, dig into its reserve and appropriate 1/3 of its reserves to recapitalize the banks to fund the BJP government's populist programmes on the eve of the elections in 2019.

To this end the government has applied never before used section 7 of RBI act.

It is one man's selfish desire to somehow come to power again at the cost of credibility and stability of RBI, the Indian Financial system and the Indian Economy.

Finance Ministry seeking to transfer a surplus of Rs 3.6 lakh crore, more than a third of the total Rs 9.59 lakh crore reserves of the central bank, to the government. RBI has rejected the proposal. We need to see, what the Modi government future move would be. Shyam....
The Ministry of Statistics reported growth of 6.7 percent, down from 7.1 percent for a year 

earlier. However, economists expect growth to be robust in the current financial year.

However, when we compare the growth for the period Jan-March 2017, we see finally see a growth of 0.7 % compared to last year for the same period. Finally, albeit slowly, we seem to be recovering from the impact of demonetisation.

But, in the coming months of this year, we may again see government policies which may adversely affect the economic growth.

This being the election year the government may formulate policies to appease people or at least a part of community. History tells us that, whenever a government formulates a populistic policy, it goes against the long term interests of the people of the country.

The Modi government has already spent more than 4,300 crores of tax payer’s money for publicity and the promotion of its various schemes. This is based on the information given by the government ministries in response to the RTI by people. This being election year, much more of the poor taxpayer’s money will go in projecting the government’s achievement.

The Amount of Money Modi Government Spent On Publicity Is Enough To Feed One Million Children For 3 Years

POPULISITC POLICIES ARE WITHOUT EXCEPTION ALWAYS ANTI PEOPLE.

As if, the self created economic turmoil is not enough, the ruling BJP has been pushed to desperation, and frustration by the raising oil prices and adverse by poll results. We only have the prime minister to blame for this situation. He inherited a situation, when the oil prices were dropping and reached a position of almost 50% of the present rate.

He did not pass on the benefit of the bonanza to the people of the country, who were the rightful owners, nor did he create an oil fund to deposit the surplus. If he had done that, the surplus deposited in the account could have been deployed to create a buffer and subsidise to certain extent at least the burden on people.

Where did this huge money go??

How and where was the money deployed???

Was it used for Fiscal expenditure, or was it deployed for people welfare schemes???

Why was an oil surplus fund not setup???

Was the economic management so poor, that, the government did not envisage a future situation, where the USD could appreciate and as a fallout could bring a resultant increase in crude oil.

Silence is not an answer to every question. The government and more specifically the prime minister is accountable to the people of the country for every rupee earned and spent.

We of course don’t mind the prime minister and universities refusing to answer the RTI regarding the prime minister’s educational qualifications???

You cannot do the same with the public money.

The previous government had a galaxy of economic experts led prime minister, who himself was an economist or global repute. Plus, he had another great economist and global expert as head of planning commission. Another great economist as the Chief Economic Advisor and later as the RBI governor. To add to this he had a glittering panel of economists as members of Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister. All the people put together formulated an economic policy, that people of India found it good enough to give UPA and Dr. Singh another term.

Modi immediately after coming to power dismantled the Economic Advisory Council. He could have retained the council but the members. And suddenly, after there was a hue and cry among people on account of mismanagement of Demonetisation and GST, he again reinstated the Economic Advisory Council. He is now pressurising the members to spread false and tailored accounts of economic growth and employment. Even renowned economist Dr. Surjit Bhalla is being used as a tool by the prime minster furthering the cause of BJP. It may be very difficult for poor Dr. Bhalla to calm down his questioning conscious. A conscientious person like him may perhaps hardest days of professional career.

I do not claim to be a know all in economics or governance. People may correct me

wherever I might have gone wrong. I am open to dissents and disagreements and

debates. Please feel free to criticise and correct me.

Best Wishes,

Shyam

On Women, PM Modi Served an Uncomfortable Message By IMF Boss 04-20

On Wmen, PM Modi Served an Uncomfortable Message By IMF Boss......

I think, the prime minister will have to learn to live with this kind of admonishing (direct & indirect) for some time to come).  

The world is justifiably outraged at the rapes of the minor girls happening so frequently in India. 

But more than, is the fact  that, the perpetrators  who belong to the BJP are not only getting protection from the BJP and BJP partnered governments, they are being celebrated by the people and supporters of the party with rallies using the national flag and shouting slogans like "Bharat Mata ki Jai" (Glory to the great Mother India).  

Their despicable act is being projected as a patriotic act.

No action is being taken by the party on the accused party members, no one has even been suspended by the party.

To top it all, the most sickening aspect of the whole episode is the whataboutery being indulged by the senior ministers of the Modi cabinet and the party spokesperson. Comparing this with the similar crimes in other state doesn't make this less heinous. And indirectly, you are telling the  world that the Indian prime minister is much more incompetent than you think, because there are such crimes in all the states of the country, which are equally or even more grievous than these.   

Plus, wherever such incidents happen, ultimate failure is that of the central government. Government is expected to be the ultimate controller and preventer of such crimes. It is expected to pass on required directives from time to time.

Like the naxal problem, which is coordinated by the central home ministry with various states, ministry of child and women welfare can coordinate the measure taken to protect the women by various governments and incentivise this action by rewarding and recognising the states implementing the policies for women protection, and in states with least rates of crime against women.

The entire thing needs to be taken out from a political perspective and linked to a human perspective. People should reject and condemn all caste and religion based comments on such crimes. 

A woman is gender, and hence, all narratives should be gender based. Reference to cast and religion tend to dilute the focus on this burning problem of the day. 

Concern at the international Fora a has started and this could add  multiply or even spread contagiously to other  larger international groups, which would be a very sad development for India internationally. 

When the Indian prime minister is ridiculed, the country automatically gets ridiculed. Damage control at the international level is long and arduous process, and definitively an avoidable activity. 

"Less of government and more of governance" was what Modi said when describing his governments priorities and working pattern.

What we have today is, 

Mess of government, and absolute mess of governance

A government whose priority is surviving from election to election and winning elections no matter what, is hardly expected to give great governance, and that is what is happening with the present government.

Political narratives all around are becoming hugely caste and religion based. The religious based narratives started by the Modi government are having boomerang effect in humongous proportions.

The moral abyss into which Indian politics has fallen is simply unfathomable. Those most responsible: Hindu extremists who value ideology over basic human decency, I ask of you, aren't there Asifa's in your family, if god forbid, if one them becomes a victim of a sadistic individual or group's lust, would you still talk of the ideology???? 

 Where is humanity?

where is humanism??

and where are the human values ???.

Don't these have any value in your scheme of things??? 

Humanism, Humanity and the Human Values are the tents on which the great Hindu religion is built.

Morally, you don't belong to the religion, you claim to protect.

In total emotional integration with every girl and women on this planet......


Shyam

The cook is the murderer concept 03-24

Image credit : Shyam's Imagination Library...

Can you see the man behind the curtain in the image..

This is the story of a time, almost a century ago, when it was a tradition to display aristocracy in the form of  the vehicles the people used, the ornamental attire the rich and the distinguished wore, and the ornaments that adorned the 'Rich and Famous' and the 'Movers and Shakers' of the town. Theatre was one of the places where this occurred most. 

To cater to the vanity of these people and to fleece them monetarily, a new category of people emerged. They were called "The Ushers". These people used to 'wait on' the rich people and do things for them, right from getting them tickets to guiding them to their seats, were some of the things these people (ushers) used to do.

Theatres in many countries could not aford have enough staff,  hence they allowed the ushers to work freelance in the theatres.

People after buying their tickets used to be helped by the ushers to find their seats.  These were freelance people, were not paid by the theatre management. They used to guide the customer, show them the way, and helped them to get to their seats. They used to be paid tips by the customers. It was not easy to ward off these people, they were very sticky, they would divert your attention from the movie and disturb your concentration, they would not leave you till they extracted a tip from you.

They were also helpful to the people who needed help, at the slight nudge, they would give you the synopsis of the movie. They would tell you the important scenes which needed careful watching and ones you could sleep through; they would also acquaint you with the exact time the movie would reach the climax, in fact, they would do everything to help you understand the movie better, but everything for a cost. They did succeed in making a respectable living from this profession.

What is the “Cook is the murderer concept”.

There was a suspense movie playing ins a theatre in a county in UK. A customer purchased the ticket, and was moving in, as usual, he was almost confronted by an usher. He tried to ward him off saying, he knew the place well and did not need help.

Usher: Sir, but the theatre has undergone revamp and the seating has been reorganized.

Customer: I know, I know, I have come here after the revamp.

Usher : But sir, you don’t know where the 'hallowed'  class is.

Customer : Don’t worry, I can make my way.

Usher : But sir….

By this time, the customer had reached his seat, he settled in his seat and said. “See, I know everything, I don’t need your help”.

The usher was angry and exasperated. He realised that he had wasted a lot of time with wrong customer. But still, he regained his composure, and said.

“Sir, there is still something, that I know, that you don’t”

The customer was curious and asked, “What is it??”

The usher coolly replied, “Sir, the cook is the murderer in this movie.”

With the suspense being destroyed, the customer angrily stomped out of the theatre. He complained to the local authorities about the menace of the ushers. Nothing could be done against them, instead the incident became famous.

After that, customers generally avoided the “cook is the murderer”situation. They quietly paid the tip to the ushers.

So, fleecing the customer, at the theatres is a practice that  has been there for more than century, and people have learned to live with it.

Please don't reveal this concept to anyone, let them visit this page and find out the same for themselves.

Best Wishes,

Shyam 

A rare case scenario, Does this make sense?? 10-18

A rare case scenario,

Where Economics flirts with Behavioral Science,

A stiff nose (Read economics), that cannot smell beyond stats and statutory instruments, and impediments, falling for an entity with unpredictable psychotics.

A cognitively mature entity (Read Behavioral Sciences) falling for the curves with constant and consistent upturns and downturns in unfathomable spasm (Read Economics).

And progeny named Behavioral Economics get a Nobel Prize.

A very existence of such an entity called Behavioral Science is surprising to many. I have found many a people asking me many a time,

How can human behavior be a science?

Human behavior is nature;

How can you cage something as vast nature in the confinement called science??

Science is definite, measurable and specific. Behavior is not, sometimes it is Cognitive, some other times, it is In-cognitive.

Human Behavior at best can be a Meta-Science that, the human being has not understood completely.

Now stress results in unpredictable but most of the times a very explicit behavioral pattern. An important part of behavioral pattern studies.

Do you know, the human race is yet find a reason and cause for the stressful behavior?

It is yet to identify as to

What are the triggers???

What is the stimulus???

What are the physiological processes???

What are the psychological process???

What are the neurological processes???

Which part of the brain it initiates, where it culminates???

Too many questions, too few answers, and that too, very ambiguous answers…

How to manage stress??? No it is not the seers or sages, that teach us that.

You have to learn stress management from Monkeys and Ants. I don’t say this, it the most respected institute MIT research that says it.

Don’t believe it. Please read it here. 

What Ants Mice Monkeys can teach us about the impact of stress


You already know that monkeys are our ancestors, but do you know that ants are our earliest ancestors. Again the same MIT research, you can read at the above link.



You may think all this as crazy thinking, but technically, it called epigenetics.

Another term, that we are hearing more often these days is Endowment Effect.

It is the emotional attachment you have for an object you have been owning for quite some time. This makes over value the object, and you are not prepared to part with it even when someone is prepared to pay a correct value for its worth. The endowment effect creates an artificial loss bias in the owner on account of the emotional attachment the person has developed for the object or the possession. Now this is a case of Behavioral Science creating an effect to impact the economics related to buying and selling pattern of an object, and hence we have a separate branch of economics that is Behavioral Economics.

But when it comes to human relationship, it is other way round. Specially in case of love marriages. But you see a person, develop attachment , then add infinite value to the person and relationship and finally own the person. This could be considered a Retro-Endowment-Effect, where the ownership comes in the last. Your  obsessive possessiveness is so great, that, you are not even prepared to share even part ownership with the parents of the person, that are responsible for the birth and upbringing. And at a later stage, when children are born, it is again a tussle between the possessiveness of the husband and wife for the total ownership.

Basically Behavioral Science and the Behavioral Economics are an amalgam of the intangible, imponderable, and improbable entity coming together to create a very tangible entities that are Behavioral Science and Behavioral Economics.

Now, you are perfectly justified, if you think, my thought has gone rogue….
The entire article is devoted to pondering on the imponderables.  But you do need to go a little insane to understand Behavioral Sciences and be a little irrational to explore Behavioral Economics.

It is this imponderable human behavior, that creates behavioral economics with good bad or even bitter fallouts., and even endowment effects.

Thanks for reading the article, and now contribute your insights and enrich the mischief mongering activity.

Best Wishes,

Shyam

One miss and South korea gets demolished, South Korea has right to dignified existence, especially when it has done no wrong. 09-24

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One miss and South korea gets demolished, South Korea has right to dignified existence, especially when it has done no wrong.


This is about the show of force by the US jets in the demilitarised zone in the Korean peninsula.

This won't work with North Korea.

You can't continuously provoke a person, who has no value for scruples and ethics. of course the jets are still in the demilitarised zone.

However,

A small slip by the jets and the retaliation by North Korea will demolish South Korea.

South Korea has a right to dignified existence, more so because it has done no wrong. You can't be the reason for the destruction of a thriving and vibrant economy. Seoul is just 35 miles from North Korean border

You cannot impose another war on the people of Korea.

You just can't make Asia, again the battle ground to test your weaponry.
Asia and Africa have continuously borne the brunt of the misdemeanour of consecutive US presidents. This needs to end. The world community has a right to peaceful existence.

United States should now take backstage and allow China and Russia to engage with North Korea for diffusing the situation.

As international community, we need to continuously throw carrots at Kim Jong-in instead of sanctions.

Considering his desperate position and the pathetic condition of the people there, there are chances of his picking up one of the carrots. We can promise him food, medicine and development aid in return for peace and some nuclear activity rollbacks.This was done earlier, with some amount of success, when his father was ruling. 

Hope, solace comes to the people of Korean Peninsula in the form of another such package.



Please also read on North Korea  


North Korean doomsday weapon could kill up to 90% of Americans, experts warn experts


North Korea 'could kill almost four million people in Seoul and Tokyo with retaliatory nuclear attack'


Time to Accept Reality and Manage a Nuclear-Armed North Korea  

Creative diplomacy is vital to defuse Korean crisis 

Escaping from North Korea in search of freedom | Yeonmi Park Video